Why $19 Trillion In Debt IS a PROBLEM
According to the World Economic Forum, the United States has achieved a new TOP 10 ranking. Tell us what we’ve won Bob: “Coming in at #10 – the United States,...
View ArticleWhy The BLS Jobs Numbers Don’t Add Up
Since the end of the financial crisis, economists, analysts, and the Federal Reserve have continued to point to the monthly employment reports as proof of the ongoing economic recovery. Even...
View ArticleThe Economy As It Is, Or The Economy As It ‘Should’ Be
The mainstream view of the unemployment statistics suggest that any weakness in the US economy, manufacturing or beyond, will be temporary and shallow because employment growth remains robust. The...
View ArticleRed Ponzi Keeps Sinking—-Despite Beijing’s Desperate Efforts To Goose...
The US is not alone in its corporate profit slump. In China, profits at State-Owned Enterprises fell a further 6.5% year-over-year in the January to July period. Estimated to have been RMB 1.31...
View ArticleBroader Alarm And Business Cycles
The NBER does not define a recession as two consecutive quarters of contracting GDP. That is the mainstream definition that largely survives as a coping mechanism to deny what might otherwise be quite...
View ArticleThe Red Ponzi Is All About Fixed Asset Investment—-And China’s Private FAI Is...
Economists setting their expectations for China and PBOC “stimulus” should have been paying attention to retail sales; not Chinese retail sales, but American. They keep seeing a rebound that just...
View ArticleRetail Sales Slow Sharply (Again)
For the most part in 2016 retail sales had been better. “Better” is, of course, a relative term, and despite intentional colorization with respect to these types of economic accounts doesn’t...
View ArticleWall Street’s Wishful Thinking—-Debunking The ‘Abundance of Strong Data’ Meme
Back in January and even into February, the idea of recession seemed no longer so far-fetched. The FOMC and orthodox economists had been claiming since late 2014 that the only economic fate was “full...
View ArticleMore Evidence In June—The Retail Slump Continues
Retail sales in June 2016 were up 3.14% from June 2015. That rate is slightly better than the average from the middle of last year, but not significantly so. The 6-month average continues to straddle...
View ArticleWhy Beijing Is Panicking—–Fixed Asset Investment Is Crashing
In August 2014, Chinese industrial production was estimated to have slowed sharply from +9.0% that July to just 6.9%. Consensus at the time expected only a minor variation, an insignificant change to...
View ArticleThe Big Disconnect——-Faltering Business Sales Versus Robust BLS Job Gains
Last week, the American Bankruptcy Institute (ABI) released its updated statistics for commercial bankruptcies through June 2016. For yet another month, bankruptcies jumped by 30% over the same month...
View ArticleWelcome To Hell——Central Banking At Work In Brazil and Beyond
Whether or not the Olympics in Brazil go off without any serious difficulties is actually an open question. There have been some athletes refusing to attend due to concerns over the Zika virus, while...
View ArticleInside The Retail Sales Report——–The Slump Continues In May
As with other economic accounts, retail sales dropped back in May after the temporary rebound coincident to calendar effects. Overall sales, including autos, grew just 1.9% over May 2015, well below...
View ArticleCareening Toward Disaster——China’s Consumers Can’t Make Up The Slack For...
As always, there is the attempt to put a brave face on what is shaping up to be the worst year yet. China’s “big 3” economic data were all disappointing in the context of what the last “brave face” was...
View ArticleRetail Sales Do Add Up—-But Not In A Good Way!
The calendar has been playing an outsized role in economic accounts this year, from leap year adding to February and now different months for Easter. With March entertaining the holiday this year, it...
View ArticleWhy $19 Trillion In Debt IS a PROBLEM
According to the World Economic Forum, the United States has achieved a new TOP 10 ranking. Tell us what we’ve won Bob: “Coming in at #10 – the United States,...
View ArticleWhy The BLS Jobs Numbers Don’t Add Up
Since the end of the financial crisis, economists, analysts, and the Federal Reserve have continued to point to the monthly employment reports as proof of the ongoing economic recovery. Even...
View ArticleThe Economy As It Is, Or The Economy As It ‘Should’ Be
The mainstream view of the unemployment statistics suggest that any weakness in the US economy, manufacturing or beyond, will be temporary and shallow because employment growth remains robust. The...
View ArticleContext Please——-China Isn’t “Recovering”
You can always tell what kind of monthly variation any economic account provides from the commentary by which it is described. And there are, apparently, only two options: upward variations mean...
View ArticleMind The Inventory/Sales Ratio——-It’s Signalling Recession Ahead
Given the revisions to wholesale sales (downward) and inventories (upward), we knew that the overall inventory imbalance for the whole supply chain would be pushed up somewhat. Total Business Inventory...
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